It goes without saying that the COVID-19 pandemic has had vast, and arguably unknown, impact on overall population mortality—from medical, economic, and societal standpoints.
It’s estimated, however, and postulated by a study published in PubMed.gov on May 12, 2020, that the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on the different levels of transmission suppression and largely differing mortality impacts based on different risks for the disease.
This study sets out to create a simple model an online tool for understanding that predicted excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, taking into account factors like condition-specific factors, age, sex, and other underlying conditions.
The Population-Based Cohort Study: Understanding the Methods
The team behind this study conducted a population-based cohort stud that linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England. The records examine individuals 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017.
The study estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models of excess COVID-19 related deaths, assuming the necessary, relative impact of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (.0001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%0, and “do nothing” (80%).
This population-based cohort study aimed to develop an online public prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation.